Quick Links for June 15, 2009

iranian_protest_election_results_26

IRAN:

The best photo collection TBE has seen of events in Iran, at the Boston Globe’s “The Big Picture.”

A blogger at the WaPo dissects and discredits an opinion piece that ran in today’s print edition, purporting to show overwhelming support for Ahmedinejad

Marc Ambinder tells you how to “Follow the Developments in Iran like a CIA Analyst.”

“Run Run Run (Live)”- The Velvet Underground

OTHER:

Good news if true: Dennis Ross getting ousted.

Update from Ben Smith: Ross still at State… today.

Akiva Eldar says what needs to be said about Netanyahu’s speech.

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2 Comments

Filed under Music, Politics

2 responses to “Quick Links for June 15, 2009

  1. Garth

    I dont think the WaPo article was claiming “overwhelming support for AhmediNijad.” Seems to me it was saying that the results of their data suggests that its plausible that the announced results of the Iranian elections are genuine. Nothing more…

    • nottooshaabi

      The piece stated that Ahmedinejad had twice as much support as Mousavi, then equated their polling with the eventual (contested) result, which showed AN with overwhelming support. What it didn’t do is state that over 50% of their sample either refused to answer, was undecided, or did not plan to vote. If one assumes that the phantom 50%’s eventual vote would break exactly as had the votes of the already decided, then their (and Garth’s) contention is plausible. But there is no reason to assume that would be true, particularly considering the events of the last 3 weeks of the campaign (the debate, Rafsanjani, the surge in support for Mousavi noted by all observers) and the evidence, albeit circumstantial, that the vote was in fact stolen.

      Furthermore, to write, as they did, “The breadth of Ahmadinejad’s support was apparent in our preelection survey” is simply untrue when one sees the numbers. Would any incumbent leader be satisfied with Ahmedinejad’s 34% support 3 weeks before an election? Of course not, and it certainly does not show “breadth of support.”

      Nate Silver has more: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/did-polling-predict-ahmadinejad-victory.html

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